US Dollar Index, October 30, 2011

hmmm and somewhat opposite formation on US Dollar...  would not be surprised that next week it gets strength....

US Dollar Index H4

GBP/USD, October 30, 2011—bearish ABCD?

GBPUSD H4, does not that look like a huge bearish ABCD formation?? it is also approaching the top of the channel on H4.. and top of the channel on D1 (see below)...

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD D1

EUR/USD October 20, 2011

i've got back from my trip and this thing is flying somewhere... but i think those are H&S on H4. I am personally looking at 136980 level to be crossed by wma(2) on H4 chart to go short on it.. with 13500-13480 area as a target.

EURUSD, H4

EUR/JPY September 29, 2011

I am watching 2wma cross designated levels (in the picture below) to enter long/short on EURJPY on H4!

EURJPY, H4

EURUSD Sad News

to me the notion that Greece will remain in EU "no matter what" sounds as a sad news :(... therefore my view on EURUSD remains bearish.. looking at today's range projections and Fibonacci levels I would be seeking to short EUR around 14020 area. My bearish outlook might change only if wma(2) crosses previous day high.... (which i expect to fade rather than cross)... most likely will not do trades today—i want to see where it goes today.. i do not want to sell yet, and more so i do not want to long it.. so wait and see strategy for today..

EURUSD D1

Bad Executors

well, and that is exactly what happened with GBPUSD yesterday :( if only i was in it... you are right my D-Huston, we are good analysts but we are bad executors :(

GBPUSD m30

GBPUSD 09/15/2011

on m30 gbpusd is moving within a triangle.. the base of that triangle is approximately 100 - 110 pips.. if it breaks upward or downward out of this triangle it will go the same 100 - 110 pips in that direction. I am favoring upward breakout looking at H4 as wma(2) has just crossed 15760 level and it is looking towards that upper border...

EURUSD Elliot Waves Play

looking at this setup makes me believe that this new move could be the beginning of new Elliot cycle downward.... but only time will show....

EURUSD D4

EURUSD Long Term

To me, in the long-term this pair is pretty bearish. Firstly, it has crossed the key level @1.3980, now it is already below the rising channel it was forming on weeklies.. we could think it might bounce there, but looking at how wma(2) is ready to cross that barrier as well i have heavy doubts it may lift up from there. Some say we should see eurusd @1.3000 and i would agree... look at those 930 pips projected.. ane where it will end up... in a very long term even that level might be not the end of the story....

EURUSD W1

And here is a bit of close up '-)

EURUSD D4

but in the very short term like my dearest D-Huston says "this pair needs to breath... it needs some air" :)

GBPUSD—Another Possibility

GBPUSD D1

EURUSD 10/09/2011

I think the following pictures are pretty self-explanatory... especially the triangle formation on H1 and its breakout to the downside... you can see now where it may stop... interestingly, that level is also some very important key level on dailies... so we might expect a good bounce..

EURUSD D1

EURUSD H1

GBPUSD 10/09/2011

GBPUSD did not follow the scenario and went beyond all the limits.. however, it may be around to stop for a while... may not come there but in case if it does i'd like to catch it @1.5802 to go long with the target of 1.6200 area.. it is just too close to that attractive key level already... i cannot believe it really lifts up without visiting it... willing to buy it @1.5802 even though it may go to 1.5760...

GBPUSD D1

 GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD 5th - 9th of August, 2011 Trading Week

So far GBPUSD is following the scenario described in the previous post. According to the way oscillator and RSI look It seems to me that the following week might be a consolidating... not real pick up. I am looking to short GBPUSD if it comes to 1.6430 level as I still hope GBPUSD would fulfill the scenario till the end ;).

GBPUSD D1

Meanwhile, I am contemplating another sizable opportunity with GBPNZD which seems to be ready to break upward from that consolidating area. For GBPNZD I see this coming week as bullish and would be looking to buy it on Monday whenever lowest it comes (if it comes).. perhaps at the PP.

GBPNZD

GBPUSD—how about this scenario?

3wma came already too close to the the trend-line. i would expect break downward towards 1.6110 area.. then perhaps bounce... but not higher then the bottom line of the channel. if this happen then we will see almost perfect H&S... and then........ if 3wma will cross 1.6110 i am SHORT till it reaches 1.5600 area.. but we will see what will happen

GBP/USD D1

R&D One Year

Special Card for my dear friend D-Huston! and if you look at the dates in the posts below you will understand why it is so special ;)!!! You are one great companion my D-Huston!

"Unfinished Business" With GBP

My wounding position with GBP is still open :( (hedged in fact!). I have shorted it few days ago and it did not work my direction.. the worse is the fact that I was not next to my charts to close it in time and the SL was not there :( (severe violation of all the rules).. Looking at H4 now and the price behavior makes me think that GBP might be ripped for the "short" now... but this time around I am going to stick to the rules and will wait for the 3wma cross of the critical levels... which are currently as they are shown with the red dashed line on the chart below.. (they may change few times though before the real breakout up/down will take place)..

On the cautious side, the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) indicator for the last couple of days signals still more GBPUSD gains (yes, my D-Huston, I looked at SSI thanks to your advice!)..

The Real Crime

Well, GBPNZD and NZD have made their crime.... however, I have done even bigger—by MISSING it out completely while chasing GBP during yesterday's choppy session :(. next time i am not going to miss this setup (see my previous post).. i think this really a time to watch "we are traders"....

It’s a Technical Mess All Over the World: Yamada

"But before you race off in search of a safe haven, Yamada says it's best to wait for some clear confirmation that the global downtrend has reversed. Until that happens, "rallies would be best used to lighten some positions."

Partners in Crime

NZD is still within that 100 pip channel on H4. GBP/NZD is also bouncing within a channel... both of them as two partners in crime seems to be preparing for some action... but where?... intuition tells me that NZD may want to break out of this channel upward which would drive GBP/NZD down outside of its channel... but I am watching closely these two guys on H4... my caution is the very fact that GOLD is back in green.. but can it sustain itself there?... if NZD does break upward it might run not more than into 1.8500 (0.618 Fibb retracement level), if downward than it might even move below 0.8000.

GBP/NZD (on the left) and NZD/USD (on the right) H4

Bitten Up Badly

Have got bitten up by GBP and EUR yesterday and today badly :(... Just going to stay back for a while until see an opportunity... as one of possibilities I am looking at NZD, but will wait for some sensible signal on H4.. if this H4 3WMA crosses below 0.8270 I am shorting it... However, 3WMA crossing above 0.8350 may signal continuation of bullish momentum.

NZD/USD H4

The Real "Unstopable"—GOLD

Ultimately we must see GOLD at 2,000 and higher! The "party" is not over yet. Like someone commented on CNBC "What? Party is over?! I think you have not seen anything yet!"... but at this moment i think it is overheated, technically it must come down (fundamentally i really do not know what may bring it down). Below is Daily chart... ellipses respected Fibonacci levels again... awesome... In the long term I would expect it to come down to 1,600 level... but it will be slow and painful process.... probably if it comes there we can participate in the "party too" :) at least i would be willing to try.

GOLD Daily

GBP/USD (Weekend Home-Work)

And this is Mr. Pound on H1—seems suggesting himself to be sold (there is a price divergence and it is also at the top of the channel it's formed). Taking into the account my previous outlook on EURJPY and the strong correlation between this cross and GBP, I would go with this signal on Monday once the market opened. The target might be around 1.6050 level.

GBP/USD H1

Correlation Analysis

Correlation analysis between pairs i trade based on the sample 10/28/2005 - 08/12/2011 (1511 obs).

	GBPUSD	GBPNZD	EURUSD	EURJPY
GBPUSD	1
GBPNZD	0.6	1
EURUSD	0.3	-0.2	1
EURJPY	0.9	0.7	0.3	1

Notably, GBPUSD and EURJPY seem to move together most of the time. Also, EURJPY and GBPNZD are quite strongly bonded to move in the same direction. So that to keep in mind while considering trades!

I am Trying Some New Technique

D-Huston, dear, look at this... i am trying something new.... will see how it will work on Monday... but look at EUR/JPY daily chart closely... that very right vertical line fell exactly at the same place with fibb time zone #3... is this not amazing?! looking at this i start to agree that eur/jpy may fell a bit more... if it comes to 107.50 i would buy it with closed eyes with some good amount... what do you think? I did not check your fav AUD/JPY perhaps it has some similar formation... I wish you could join active trading soon :( 

EUR/JPY Daily

EUR/USD H1

I've Just Initiated EUR-JPY Long

Well, EUR-JPY is there—at the bottom of the channel... indicators also suggest upward movement... though having fear that it may inch lower, i am willing to try...

EUR/JPY D1

EURUSD D1, August 9, 2011

where now? :S RSI is looking so confused on Dailies..... :S

EUR/USD Daily

EURUSD, August 8, 2011

EUR/USD H4

This is H4... D-Huston, looking at this price structure it seems to me that EUR-USD is preparing for bull action... seems it is falling currently only to pick up the speed..........

One Trade I have On My Mind—EURJPY

oh, have not been trading eurjpy for a while............ since i got in trouble while that memorable Japanese intervention :))) but this time let them intervene! this is the channel on DAILIES! not sure what could be the target... but i would like to join in bull.... I've made a mistake as i should have try to catch it at 109.000 which is good psychological level but I was not near my charts... anyways... if there is this kind of convergence on dailies we can always join in, if we are successful to determine the low for a day during the next few consecutive days..

EURJPY Daily

EUR/USD Daily and H4 correction ;)

Actually if to look closely on Dailies EUR/USD is pretty much within the channel... i think i've put it on my chart a bit skewed in the previous post... here is the correction:

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD H4

D-Huston's 2nd Option for EUR/USD

oki this is H4... and this is what I see, D-Huston.. there is a very nice Elliot Waves formation which looks incomplete... i am only not sure the EUR (with all its problems) has a "mojo" left to complete it... we will see... also look at RSI.. looks bullish at the moment... ideally i would love to see if price does advance to that projected level but RSI can not make it to the same level—our favorite bearish divergence! than i would go ahead sell it with some good lot ;)

But on the other side look where it is right now!!! at the bottom of that channel.. in fact it is testing it from outside right now... so lets see what happen..

overall price seems to be loosing the momentum... if by any chance any advance in price upward, then it is probably a time to short it for GOOD ;) 

EUR/USD H4

WE ARE TRADERS... ARE WE?! -)

D-Huston, do you remember this link you sent to cheer someone up, every time I watch this I laugh at that phrase -) this is our video ;) when we really screw up we must watch this..

GBPNZD Daily

Is this only me or others also see this formation?

Where will unstopable stop?

GBP/NZD H4

this is what i am keeping eye on right now.. on H4 it is forming a wedge, that makes me ask GBPNZD: "Maybe enough?".. but on dailies i think it may inch a bit lower to 1.8500 area perhaps...